Evaluation of forecast accuracy

General Provisions

The score for a forecast accuracy is a quantitative indicator of how the forecast matches the actual result.

The forecast accuracy score is used to distribute the winnings from the prize pool.

Forecast accuracy is assessed on a scale from 0 to 100 points.

100 points are awarded for an absolutely accurate forecast implying a 100% match between the forecast and the actual result.

If several independent events are included in the coupon for bets then the evaluation of the coupon forecast accuracy as a whole is calculated as an arithmetic average of each event’s accuracy score.

Points for the forecast accuracy (apart from an absolutely accurate forecast) are subjective but all players are on equal terms.

In the prevailing majority of cases when comparing two incorrect forecasts it is obvious which forecast is more accurate. And this means that the evaluation of forecast accuracy is fair.

The rules for forecast accuracy scoring can be viewed directly from the coupon using the "Coupon Rules" button.

To save you the trouble of learning these rules, we offer free bets to understand forecast accuracy scores as you practice without risking anything.

The administration of Betfunsports will be grateful for all suggestions on improving the system for forecasts assessment.

Our approaches to assessing accuracy

Aspect of the event for the forecast.

The event itself is not the subject of forecasting. The subject of the forecast are the aspects of the event, which characterize the event from a certain side.

The aspect of a sporting event can be expressed by a number (numbers), a player's name, a particular statement.

The aspect of an event is simple, if it is characterized by only one value in some form: number, name or a statement. The aspect of an event is complex, if it consists of several simple aspects.

Examples of events: a football match, a biathlon race.

Examples of simple aspects: the total number of goals in a match, the outcome of a football match (1X2), the winner of a biathlon race.

Examples of complex aspects: match score, names of the three winners of the race.

Criteria for the forecast accuracy evaluation

Forecast accuracy can be evaluated in different ways depending on the criteria used for assessment.

Forecast evaluation criteria are also aspects of the event.

The criteria for evaluating the accuracy of the forecast are chosen in such a way that it is possible to assess the discrepancy between the forecast and the actual result.

And the aspects of the event for the forecast and for the assessment do not necessarily coincide.

Example: a Coupon on the winner of a race. Aspect of the event (race) for the forecast is the name of the participant of the race and the aspect of the event for evaluation is the place of the participant following the results of the race. In this case, the place of the athlete in the race is not the subject of the forecast but is an evaluation criterion.

Calculation of forecast accuracy points

To calculate the forecast accuracy points (score) it is necessary to determine the discrepancy between the value of the aspect of the event according to the forecast and the actual value of the aspect of the event.

If there is no discrepancy between a forecast and the actual result then the estimate for the forecast is 100 points. If the discrepancy between the forecast and the actual result has a maximum value then the score for this forecast is 0 points.

If the discrepancy is expressed by a number then the estimate for the forecast accuracy is calculated as a linear or exponential function.

If the discrepancy is not expressed by a number then the score for the forecast accuracy is determined using a special assessment table.

When the event aspect for the forecast is complex and/or for estimating the accuracy of the forecast, several criteria are used, then in calculating the accuracy of the forecast as a whole, the scores for each criterion are taken into account with weighting factors.

If several independent events are included in the coupon for bets, then the evaluation of the coupon forecast accuracy as a whole is calculated as the arithmetic average of the scores of the forecasts accuracy for each event.

Assessment Table

Assessment table shows our frequently used forecast accuracy evaluation system.

In cases where complex aspects of the event are used for forecasting or for estimation, formulas or sets of Tables of assessment are used to calculate scores for the accuracy of the forecast:

Table No 1

At the intersection of the forecast value of the aspect and the actual value of the aspect is the cell with the accuracy score of the forecast.

At the intersection of the identical values of forecast value of the aspect and actual value of the aspect, there are 100 points for the exact forecast.

The remaining cells of the table contain points for inaccurate forecast Bij < 100.

In coupons with complex aspects, formulas and tables are used to calculate the forecast value.You can assess formulas and/or tables for forecast accuracy score by clicking the "Coupon Rules" button in the coupon.